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MARCH 14,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:21 P.M. ET: 

RELIGIOUS BULLETIN – From International Business Times:  "A Saudi cleric named Saleh al-Fawzan has issued a fatwa against all-you-can-eat buffets in Saudi Arabia. He made the statement on a Saudi Quranic TV station.  Fawzan said the value and quantity of the food sold should be pre-determined beforehand.  'Whoever enters the buffet and eats for 10 or 50 riyals without deciding the quantity they will eat is violating Sharia (Islamic) law,' Fawzan was quoted on al-Atheer channel.  The fatwa attempts to add plate piling eateries to the long list of things outlawed by religious edicts. It has been the subject of condemnation and debate on social media channels."  About time someone took on this menace.  I'll sleep better tonight.

YOUTH ABANDONING OBAMA – From liberal writer Dana Milbank, at the Washington Post:  "An army of 15 million voters under 30 swept Obama past Hillary Clinton and John McCain and to the presidency in 2008. More than 12 million helped him return in 2012. But now his presidency is on the line — and the Obama youth are abandoning him in his hour of need.  The administration announced last week that only 1.08 million people ages 18 to 34 had signed up for Obamacare by the end of February, or about 25 percent of total enrollees. If the proportion doesn’t improve significantly, the result likely will be fatal for the Affordable Care Act."  For Republicans, the defection is an opportunity, but Republicans are not brilliant about capitalizing on opportunities.  The party must demonstrate to the new generation that GOP ideas will improve their lot.

THANKS SARAH AND MITT – From the Washington Times:  "The majority of Americans see Russia as a serious threat to the U.S. and about half think another Cold War could break out as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a poll released Friday found.  The CNN/ORC International poll reported that 69 percent of Americans see Russia as a serious threat to the U.S. — up 25 percent from 2012 and the highest in a decade."  When Sarah Palin said in 2008 that the Russians might invade Ukraine, she was laughed at.  When Mitt Romney said during the 2012 campaign that Russia was becoming our major adversary, he too was laughed at.  I hope the laughing has stopped.

FLASH – We are getting a preliminary report from AP that Malaysian authorities have concluded that the airliner that disappeared last week was hijacked and steered off course.  More on this tomorrow morning.

March 14, 2014       Permalink 

HILARIOUS, BUT ALSO SAD – AT 10:18 A.M. ET:  This is not the most important story around, or even on the top-ten list.  But it's too juicy to ignore.  From Fox: 

Colorado colleges and universities have seen a dramatic jump in applications, including from out of state, following the legalization of marijuana, but officials insist there’s no drug connection.

Applications to the University of Colorado are up 30 percent since Amendment 64 made recreational pot legal, according to Director of Admissions Kevin MacLennan. But while several marijuana advocates told FoxNews.com it is hardly surprising that the Centennial State would become a mecca for college-bound tokers, MacLennan disagrees.

“We aren’t getting a lot of questions about this,” MacLennan said, referring to the new law.

He said a better explanation for the rise in applications is increased recruitment at high schools across the country and abroad and the university’s adoption of the Common Application, which facilitates students’ ability to apply to multiple schools around the nation using a single form.

Colorado College has also seen a rise in applications, but Mark Hatch, vice president for enrollment, said it is part of a longer-term trend.

“This year is no different, so there is no evidence that our increase [is tied] to Amendment 64,” Hatch told FoxNews.com in an email.

COMMENT:  I have not examined this with scientific precision, but I'd imagine that the marijuana issue is playing a larger role than the college executives would like us to believe.  I mean, if I were running a university, I wouldn't want people to think that students are in my school because pot is plentiful, and legal.  But hey, man, Colorado is a blast.  Right, man?  Hey, is that light green or red?

March 14, 2014       Permalink

UKRAINE COUNTDOWN – AT 9:34 A.M. ET:  The United States has given Russia until Monday to alter its Ukraine policy...or else.  Or else what?  Remember, it's Obama.  "Or else" usually means we'll fret and whine and mention "sanctions," and then the president will go to Hawaii.  From Fox:

American diplomats are warning Russia that it will face "very serious" consequences by Monday if the country does not stand down on Ukraine, as they scramble to prevent Moscow from annexing the disputed Crimea region.

Secretary of State John Kerry, in a last-ditch bid to convince Russia to cooperate, met in London on Friday morning with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. He spoke briefly with Lavrov over the phone in advance of the meeting, and according to the State Department reiterated the administration's concerns about the upcoming referendum on Sunday -- when Crimea residents are set to vote on whether to join Russia.

A small group of Ukrainian protesters with posters reading "NATO Save Ukraine" awaited Kerry as he arrived at Downing Street for an earlier meeting with Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron and Foreign Secretary William Hague ahead of his talks with Lavrov.

Cameron underlined the threat of sanctions when he sat down with Kerry, telling him that "we want to see progress as much as you do."

"We want to see Ukrainians and the Russians talking to each other. And if they don't then there are going to have to be consequences," he added.

Kerry thanked his British hosts for their strong position, saying that "we're all hoping that we don't get pushed into a place where we have to do all this. But we'll see what happens."

The Sunday referendum has the potential to significantly escalate the crisis. Asked Thursday what would happen if Crimea votes to leave Ukraine and the Russian government approves it, Kerry vowed "a response" to the referendum itself.

"In addition, if there is no sign of any capacity to be able to move forward and resolve this issue, there will be a very serious series of steps on Monday in Europe and here with respect the options that are available to us," Kerry told a Senate panel.

COMMENT:  Ah, those serious steps.  Like the serious steps Obama has taken in Syria, in Libya, in North Korea, in China.  All serious steps.

We'll wait.  No one wants a military confrontation, but Russia must be dealt with firmly, short of military action.  The trump card here is probably held by Germany, the strongest nation in Europe, which is heavily dependent on its economic links with Russia, and has been reluctant to confront Moscow too powerfully.

March 14,  2014     Permalink

GREAT SCOTT? – AT 9:15 A.M. ET:  Former Republican Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown seems to be getting closer and closer for another Senate run...from New Hampshire.  From CBS and AP: 

Former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown has decided to form an exploratory committee for a possible Senate run in New Hampshire, according to a CBS News report.

Brown has also begun seeking campaign staff while aggressively courting New Hampshire’s political elite, marking what local Republicans consider serious steps toward launching a Senate campaign against Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.

The forming of an exploratory committee officially allows him to begin raising money and hiring staff. An official announcement has not yet been made.

The longtime Massachusetts resident recently relocated to his seacoast New Hampshire vacation home.

Brown spent much of the past two weeks calling key New Hampshire Republican officials and influential GOP activists, saying he was going to run and seeking their support. At the same time, Brown’s camp has quietly begun offering paid positions to Republican operatives for a prospective New Hampshire campaign.

Several people involved in the discussions said some in the GOP establishment remain skeptical given the former Republican senator’s recent track record. The 54-year-old Brown angered Massachusetts Republicans last year after indicating he would run in the state’s special U.S. Senate election, only to change his mind late in the process.

“He’s been reaching out to opinion leaders, to grassroots activists, getting a sense of, ‘Would you be supporting a Scott Brown campaign,’” said former New Hampshire Rep. Frank Guinta, who is running again for Congress and was included in Brown’s outreach efforts. “That, to me, says he’s serious. But I think only Scott Brown knows if Scott Brown is going to run.”

Democrats hope he does not.

While recent polls give Shaheen a solid lead in a prospective matchup, Brown’s near-universal name recognition in a state that shares a media market with Massachusetts and his national fundraising network would make him a serious contender on Day One should he enter the race.

COMMENT:  I hope he runs, but I think it will be very difficult.  Even though he comes from neighboring Massachusetts, and has a home in New Hampshire, some will still see him as a carpetbagger and an opportunist. 

Also, Shaheen, while vulnerable, is not a left-wing nut case.  She'll run a good campaign.  Of course, if Scott can defeat her, it's one more GOP senator in the battle to take control of the Senate.

March 14, 2014       Permalink

AIRLINER LATEST – AT 8:52 A.M. ET:  This updates our entry in "Short Takes" last night.  From Reuters: 

Military radar data suggests a Malaysia Airlines jetliner missing for nearly a week was deliberately flown hundreds of miles off course, heightening suspicions of foul play among investigators, sources told Reuters on Friday.

Analysis of the Malaysia data suggests the plane, with 239 people on board, diverted from its intended northeast route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing and flew west instead, using airline flight corridors normally employed for routes to the Middle East and Europe, said sources familiar with investigations into the Boeing 777′s disappearance.

Two sources said an unidentified aircraft that investigators believe was Flight MH370 was following a route between navigational waypoints when it was last plotted on military radar off the country’s northwest coast.

This indicates that it was either being flown by the pilots or someone with knowledge of those waypoints, the sources said.

The last plot on the military radar’s tracking suggested the plane was flying toward India’s Andaman Islands, a chain of isles between the Andaman Sea and the Bay of Bengal, they said.

Waypoints are geographic locations, worked out by calculating longitude and latitude, that help pilots navigate along established air corridors.

A third source familiar with the investigation said inquiries were focusing increasingly on the theory that someone who knew how to fly a plane deliberately diverted the flight.

“What we can say is we are looking at sabotage, with hijack still on the cards,” said that source, a senior Malaysian police official.

COMMENT:  Is it possible that the plane was hijacked, and then crashed when passengers or crew attempted to take it back?  Remember, that's exactly what happened with United Flight 93 on September 11, 2001.  That was the plane, apparently headed for Washington, that crashed in Pennsylvania when passengers attempted to retake it.

I'm also struck by the statement that the route the plane presumably took was one normally used for routes to the Middle East and Europe.  Hmm.  The Middle East?  If the plane was hijacked, were the hijackers attempting to take it the Middle East, land it, and exchange the passengers for prisoners held somewhere?

This is speculation, but it's what some people are suggesting.

March 14,  2014     Permalink

MARCH 13, 2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:17 A.M. ET:

AIRLINER LATEST:  From CNN, quoting an American official:  "'There is probably a significant likelihood' that the aircraft is now on the bottom of the Indian Ocean, the official said, citing information Malaysia has shared with the United States."  That would be way, way of course, and would indicate that the plane was flying for hours after the incident that caused it to break radio contact with the ground.  Some experts interviewed tonight say the evidence is pointing toward an intentional act.  But this is informed speculation only

VERDICT ON OBAMA, PUTIN – From the Washington Examiner:  "Maybe it is the photos of him posing shirtless on horseback, or his military push into Ukraine, but Americans in a new poll believe Russian President Vladimir Putin is a much stronger leader than President Obama.  A YouGov/Economist survey of 1,000 adults interviewed March 8-10 found that 78 percent view Putin as somewhat to very strong leader. Just 45 percent see Obama the same way. Worse, more Americans, 55 percent, view Obama as a weak leader."  The Americans are correct.  And look what weakness has gotten us.

OUR JOBS CRISIS – From The Daily Caller:  "The number of native-born, working-age Americans who aren’t working has shot up by almost 9 million since 2007, and by almost 15 million since 2000, according to a new report by the Center for Immigration Studies, an anti-immigration group."  Welcome to the recovery.

IF THIS HAD BEEN DAN QUAYLE... – From The Truth Revolt, on Obama's trip to The Gap to buy presents for his kids:  "Upon checking out, however, the problems began. Obama took out his credit card and began handing it to the cashier, who told him that he could swipe his credit card in the automated machine. 'Oh, wow,' Obama said, 'so you can sign the machine?' He then said he was kidding: 'They had these around the last time I shopped.'"  Remember when the press went hysterical because President Bush 41 appeared not to recognize a supermarket scanner?  Of course Barack would never be ridiculed over something like that because he is so wise and smart, as we've seen the last five years. 

March 13,  2014     Permalink

MADNESS – AT 10:32 A.M. ET:  The Obama administration has shown its expertise at making enemies out of friends and worse enemies out of existing enemies.  They are brilliant.  Consider this, from ace defense reporter Bill Gertz, in The Washington Free Beacon: 

The Obama administration has turned down an urgent appeal from Egypt’s government for the delivery of U.S. Apache attack helicopters needed for counterterrorism operations in the Sinai Peninsula.

U.S. officials and a Western diplomat said the 10 AH-64 attack helicopters had been blocked from delivery in October in response to the administration’s opposition to the military ouster of Muslim Brotherhood President Mohammad Morsi last year.

The U.S. Embassy in Cairo within the past several weeks relayed the Egyptian government’s appeal to send the new Apaches in a cable to the State Department.

According to U.S. officials, the Egyptians said the attack helicopters were urgently needed for Cairo’s fight in the Sinai against a new al Qaeda-linked terrorist group called Ansar Bait al-Maqdis, or Ansar Jerusalem.

One official said the embassy cable reported that the Egyptians do not understand why the Obama administration, by blocking delivery of the Apaches, appears to be supporting the ousted Morsi regime.

Morsi is Muslim Brotherhood, and Obama, who never let anti-Americanism bother him, is sympathetic to that group.

The embassy stated that the Egyptians’ explained that their security needs should be met or the United States risks turning Cairo into an enemy, something the Egyptians do not favor.

“The Egyptians are fighting in the Sinai to protect their own interests, Jordanian interests, and Israeli interests,” the official said. “They’re in a tough fight and the administration is refusing to provide the Apaches, which is tantamount to supporting the Muslim Brotherhood.”

An Egyptian Embassy spokesman had no comment. However, a western diplomat familiar with the issue confirmed that the Apaches were requested recently and the response was that U.S. military aid remains on hold.

Asked about Egypt’s request for Apaches, a senior administration official told the Washington Free Beacon: “At this time we have no announcements to make regarding changes to our assistance to the government of Egypt.”

COMMENT:  They said of Harry Truman that he did the biggest things in the biggest ways and the littlest things in the littlest ways.  Obama does everything in the littlest ways.  His spitefulness toward the government of Egypt is horrendous.  We worked decades to get Egypt, the most important Arab country, on our side.  Now Obama, showing his love for the Brotherhood, is throwing it all away, and endangering both Jordan and Israel in the process. 

Obama would be a wonderful president, of a student government.  He'd make sure the students could keep their same dorm room, if they liked it.

March 13, 2014      Permalink

A SERIOUS WARNING – AT 9:58 A.M. ET:  This chilling subject comes up regularly, and is regularly ignored.  We ignore the warning at our own peril.  From Fox: 

The U.S. could suffer a national blackout if attackers knocked out just nine of the country's electric-transmission substations on a hot summer day, according to a previously unreported study by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

The study concluded that coordinated attacks in each of the nation's three separate electric systems could cause the entire power network to collapse, The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday, citing people familiar with the agency's research.

The commission concluded that the three electrical systems that serve the entire nation could go dark if as few as nine of the country's 55,000 electric-transmission substations were knocked out in the East, the West and in Texas, according to the report.

"This would be an event of unprecedented proportions," Ross Baldick, a professor of electrical engineering at the University of Texas at Austin, told the newspaper.

According to Wall Street Journal, study's results have been known for months by the White House, Congress and officials at federal agencies, who were briefed by then-FERC Chairman Jon Wellinghoff and others at the commission.

COMMENT:  The power grid is very vulnerable, but utilities have been reluctant to spend the money to harden it.  In addition, there are warnings about a potential EMP (electro-magnetic pulse) attack on the United States – in which a nuclear weapon would be exploded high above the nation, and the electronic radiation would melt much of our power and computer infrastructure, paralyzing much of the country, possibly for years.

These warnings come and go, but people are just not that interested.  It's hard to stay interested when the tragedy is not happening right before your eyes.

March 13, 2014       Permalink

THE AIRLINER II – AT 9:19 A.M. ET:  Part of Andy Pasztor's excellently reported story in The Wall Street Journal (see post just below) dealt with informed speculation as to what happened to the Malaysian airliner.  Networks are now reporting the same informed speculation.  From the Journal:

But the huge uncertainty about where the plane was headed, and why it apparently continued flying so long without working transponders, has raised theories among investigators that the aircraft may have been commandeered for a reason that appears unclear to U.S. authorities. Some of those theories have been laid out to national security officials and senior personnel from various U.S. agencies, according to one person familiar with the matter.

At one briefing, according to this person, officials were told investigators are actively pursuing the notion that the plane was diverted "with the intention of using it later for another purpose."

As of Wednesday it remained unclear whether the plane reached an alternate destination or if it ultimately crashed, potentially hundreds of miles from where an international search effort has been focused.

In those scenarios, neither mechanical problems, pilot mistakes nor some other type of catastrophic incident caused the 250-ton plane to mysteriously vanish from radar.

COMMENT:  That would be a spectacular terrorist operation.  And, if it occurred, one could think of a number of wild scenarios – including the holding of the passengers as hostages, possibly to be released in exchange for the release of prisoners elsewhere.  Please recall that an Air France aircraft was hijacked in 1976 by a radical Palestinian group and flown to Entebbe in Idi Amin's Uganda, where the hijackers were welcomed as heroes.  They demanded the release of Palestinian prisoners held in Israel in exchange for the passengers they were holding.  The incident ended in a spectacular Israeli raid led by the brother of the current prime minister of Israel.  That brother was killed in the raid, but the passengers were freed.

All speculation, of course.  But it's intelligent speculation.  Remember that there are governments involved here, especially the Muslim government of Malaysia, which is very sensitive on issues of terrorism. 

More to come.

March 13, 2014       Permalink

(We're getting started a bit late this morning because I wanted to monitor some late developments involving the Malaysian airliner.  It's getting curioser and curioser.)

THE AIRLINER – AT 8:58 A.M. ET:  There are contradictory reports flying all over the place about the missing Malaysian airliner.  I say "missing" because one theory, now being floated by serious people, is that the plane may have been diverted, to be used for some future operation.  That is speculation.

Here is what is going on:  The Malaysian authorities say they have searched the area where a Chinese satellite detected possible airliner wreckage and have found nothing. 

The major story of the morning comes from the The Wall Street Journal's Andy Pasztor, one of the most respected aviation journalists in the business.   Malaysia flatly denies this story, but Pasztor's reputation, and sources, argue in the other direction:

U.S. investigators suspect that Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 stayed in the air for about four hours past the time it reached its last confirmed location, according to two people familiar with the details, raising the possibility that the plane could have flown on for hundreds of additional miles under conditions that remain murky.

Aviation investigators and national security officials believe the plane flew for a total of five hours, based on data automatically downloaded and sent to the ground from the Boeing 777's engines as part of a routine maintenance and monitoring program.

That raises a host of new questions and possibilities about what happened aboard the widebody jet carrying 239 people, which vanished from civilian air-traffic control radar over the weekend, about one hour into a flight to Beijing from Kuala Lumpur.

COMMENT:  The key words in that story are "according to two people familiar with the details."  When you have a reporter with Pasztor's expertise, those words are his certification that the sources are valid.  The fact that there are two sources further validate his story.

Obviously, I don't have inside information.  But the Malaysian authorities have thus far proved inept, and have not been particularly accurate in the information they've released.  I'll go with Pasztor. 

We'll keep you informed, to the degree that anyone is actually informed about this growing mystery.

March 13, 2014     Permalink